Awards Oscars Contest 2024

[Riku]

Good evening movie-goers and home theatre stremers! Is the time for the traditional Mangahelpers Oscars guessing game!

Rules:

• Include your actual Mangahelpers username when you vote
• You can vote as many times as you want, but only your latest vote is valid
• The player with the most correct guesses wins
  • In case of an tie, the short film categories work as tie breakers. They do not count to the overall score, they only matter in solving ties.
  • If there is still a tie after the short film tiebreaker, the one with the most correct picks in "The Big 5" categories wins (Best Film, Director, Lead Actor/Actress, Adapted/Original Screenplay)
• Include your actual Mangahelpers username when you vote. Yes, you have read this twice now. It's twice here for a reason. DONT FORGET THE USERNAME
  • If you don't see your name appearing to the participants list in a few days, PM @Riku

Schedule:

• The deadline Sunday 10th of March 11PM GMT

Click Here to Vote

Spoiler: List of participants this far

- Riku
- Faust
- im.me
- thehoennhippo
- Erinyes
- Eigengrau
- Kiki

 

[Organizized]

A lot of two-way races this year, tougher to predict than usual! So I will take my time... unless I'll do what I usually do and do one "gut prediction" and change it later if I start thinking too much.
Thanks for the work again this year Riku!

 

[Riku]

Tagging time! Please play the Oscar game again!

Spoiler

@Arjuna @Thehoennhippo @voaneves @George Monkey @Eigengrau

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 6, 2024, Original Post Date: Mar 6, 2024 ---

@Evil3ye @avietar @Erinyes @im.me @xi0

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 6, 2024 ---

@minion @SharkBait @Sapphic Spider @Charlie @goldb

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 6, 2024 ---

@PhillyG @Battou @desin24 @Kiki @Gajeel

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 6, 2024 ---

Aand that's it for the peeps who've participated before.

 

[Thehoennhippo]

I wonder what will win... outside of the Oppenheimer sweep lol.

 

[George Monkey]

The Monkey has returned from afar to reclaim his crown ...

 

[Eigengrau]

I wonder what will win... outside of the Oppenheimer sweep lol.

If it were up to me, Poor Things would sweep it all, but alas we all know that's not gonna happen so my picks will reflect that.

The Monkey has returned from afar to reclaim his crown ...

tell us about some of your favorite films from last year

~

I think I've come up with my final picks, will submit later.
I'm going for more "will probably win" than "should win" this year, and it pains me a lot to leave Poor Things to the side on so many categories.

 

[Riku]

Roughly a day left to vote! Don't miss the deadline!

Spoiler

@Organizized @Eigengrau @Erinyes @Kiki @z.5

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 9, 2024, Original Post Date: Mar 9, 2024 ---

@Sanity Check @Charlie

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 9, 2024 ---

I wonder what will win... outside of the Oppenheimer sweep lol.

Lot of coin flips I feel like. But Oppenheimer is half of the coin in most cases, so likely to see it dominate.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 9, 2024 ---

The Monkey has returned from afar to reclaim his crown ...

Share us your wisdom! What's the best film of the year for monkeys?

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 9, 2024 ---

Personally, I've seen painfully little this year. Practically just Barbenheimer. So I'm pretty much guessing randomly this time.

Except for animation category again. Only one I've seen everything of again. I wish for Boy and the Heron, expect Spiderverse, and would be happy with actually any of 5 films. Each one I thoroughly enjoyed. Even Elemental, which is the weakest of the bunch.

 

[Blink22]

Margot Robbie should have been nominated man

 

[Thehoennhippo]

Margot Robbie should have been nominated man

#NYADSWEEP.

 

[Organizized]

Finally watched Oppenheimer and Poor Things in the last week so now I've made my picks with a bit more of an informed basis.

Gonna type out my full list later. I've got a day off tomorrow so will stay up and watch the ceremony tonight/in the morning, I think.

Meanwhile, here's my (updated) overall 2023 film rankings:

Spoiler

Monster - 10/10
Anatomy of a Fall - 9/10
Past Lives - 9/10
Perfect Days - 9/10
Oppenheimer - 9/10
Poor Things - 8,5/10
The Holdovers - 8/10
Killers of the Flower Moon - 8/10
The Boy and the Heron - 8/10
Robot Dreams - 8/10
Fallen Leaves - 8/10
Across the Spider-Verse - 8/10
Society of the Snow - 8/10
The Teachers’ Lounge - 8/10
The Zone of Interest - 8/10
Nimona - 8/10
Suzume - 8/10
Io Capitano - 8/10
Asteroid City - 8/10
Theater Camp - 8/10
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret. - 7,5/10
Barbie - 7,5/10
Scream VI - 7/10
The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 6,5/10
Elemental - 6,5/10

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - 8/10

See you tonight!

 

[Riku]

I have a working day tomorrow, so wont be joining in tonight. Means also that's results w8ll be revealed late tomorrow as well.

As a little teaser, we have a lot of categories with 100% pick rate. Meaning one miss could be fateful and tie breaker rules could happen.

 

[George Monkey]

Had to submit a second set of picks. Switched to John + Yoko. Not the first time Yoko Ono has ruined the best of plans.

 

[Organizized]

Had to submit a second set of picks. Switched to John + Yoko. Not the first time Yoko Ono has ruined the best of plans.

Did you have Letter to a Pig at first? If so, I made the very same change last minute.

 

[Faust]

Submitted a new one.

I'm predicting an Emma Stone win (probably unlikely since she lost at SAG, but we'll see)

 

[Eigengrau]

Submitted a new one.

I'm predicting an Emma Stone win (probably unlikely since she lost at SAG, but we'll see)

I hope so.

Likely a hot take, but Lily Gladstone did absolutely nothing for me in the film. Yes she has a presence, but she's barely in the film, and I guess that's sort of the point? While Emma Stone is quite literally there throughout the entire film, and not only that, it's one of those roles where, personally, I could see the character's actual growth from beginning to end.

If Emma doesn't win, it's not only going to be a repeat of last year, but a worst one at that; I'm happy that Michelle Yeoh won, but what she did is incomparable to Cate Blanchett's role as Lydia Tár, and to see Emma Stone lose after putting on such a unique and invested performance is really going to suck, just as much as seeing Poor Things lose a ton of awards. If only it had come out another year I'm sure it would've swept.

So yeah, that's just how I feel. I know that screen time itself doesn't determine whether a performance is Oscar-worthy or not, but I just feel like if Gladstone wins it's only gonna be because of the implications and whatnot, and not so much because of her acting, also sort of what happened last year as well.

I get where the praise is coming from but I really didn't see it that way, at all.



If there's anything I hope to see happen tonight, is to see Emma Stone take home the prize, I really don't care about anything else seeing as more than half of the categories should pretty much be a lock.

 

[Organizized]

So the ones I have a pretty tough time with this year are

Actress - Lily Gladstone or Emma Stone
Production Design - Barbie or Poor Things
Make-up and Hairstyling - Maestro or Poor Things
Costume Design - Barbie or Poor Things
Visual Effects - Godzilla Minus One or The Creator
Adapted Screenplay - Oppenheimer or American Fiction

to a lesser extent:
Original Screenplay - Anatomy of a Fall or The Holdovers
Actor - Cillian Murphy or Paul Giamatti
Animated Feature - Across the Spider-Verse or The Boy and the Heron

Here's my full list of predictions/picks:

Spoiler: Predictions and picks

Best Picture
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: I think the rest are fighting for second place.
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives are my two faves in this category... but Oppenheimer is more of a Best Picture winner than those two if I'm being honest.

Best Director
Will win: Christopher Nolan
Could win: See above. Chris is finally getting that Directing Oscar.
Should win: Nolan deserves it, but I'd have loved to see Justine Triet get this.

Best Actor
Will win: Cillian Murphy
Could win: Paul Giamatti
Should win: Either of those two.
Cillian's performance is a bit harder hitting but Paul's is so natural and seems so effortless, while still very effective. I'd say they're both deserving here, but Murphy takes it.

Best Actress
Will win: Lily Gladstone
Could win: Emma Stone
Should win: Sandra Huller

This has been a close race from the start but I think the momentum is shifted back to Gladstone ever since the SAG win. Would be a deserving win, she did a fine job and obviously she's got the "first indigenous winner" story going for her, for a film about the oppression and genocide of said group... Acting-wise I personally thought Stone did a better job (was also given more to work with though) but Sandra Huller's performance is head and shoulders above both of them, to me.
(Greta Lee should have been nominated here btw, I'm still mad.)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: American Fiction
Could win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Poor Things

This is a close race as well, but I think this is where they'll take the chance to award AF, and it'll likely be its only win of the night.

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could win: The Holdovers
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

AOAF has one of the best screenplays in years, to me. Should be a no-brainer. But The Holdovers is also very strong, and more digestible to the American audience maybe? Still, think it's the same case as Adapted, they'll give this to AOAF and it'll be its only win of the night.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Could win: Nope.
Should win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph. Very deserved sweep of every award up to this point, and def the most deserving of the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Robert Downey Jr.
Could win: Ryan Gosling... but not really.
Should win: They're all really strong this year, but I too would love to see RDJ take this.

Best Cinematography
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: This is a lock as well I think... maybe Poor Things as a distant #2.
Should win: Oppenheimer or Poor Things. The latter should be closer than it is considered to be, imo. Overall I was more impressed with its overall style but that's just down to personal taste I guess. As much as I think Oppenheimer deserves this for its brilliant camera work, there's just as many (if not more) shots from Poor Things that clearly remain in my mind.

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Could win: The Boy and the Heron
Should win: I'm with @Riku here, I liked all of these (though Elemental comfortably in last place). But would love to see a Ghibli win, obviously, even if it's nowhere near my favorite Miyazaki it's still the one thats stuck with me the most of this bunch.

Best Production Design
Will win: Poor Things
Could win: Barbie
Should win: Poor Things

I'm "hopedicting" for Poor Things here. Barbie has the whole "used up all the pink dye in the world" spectacle to it, and Barbieland is impressive, but Poor Things is impressive looking all throughout.

Best Costume Design
Will win: Barbie or Poor Things
Could win: Poor Things or Barbie
Should win: Poor Things

I might hopedict Poor Things here as well just to deviate from the odds *somewhere*, and I do think this is one of the tightest races... but am aware that Barbie is the more probable winner. Might change my mind last minute for this one.

Best Make-up/Hairstyling
Will win: Maestro
Could win: Poor Things
Should win: Poor Things

Kinda wanna go the same route as previous two categories and pick Poor Things here as I think it also deserves make-up over Maestro, but the latter is a "transformative biopic make-up" for a Best Actor nominee, so... that's probably gonna take it.

Best Score
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Nope.
Should win: Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon

Too easy for Göransson at this point. (But I really liked the score for KotFM as well.)

Best Song
Will win: What Was I Made For? (Barbie)
Could win: I'm Just Ken (Barbie)
Should win: What Was I Made For?

Imagine if I'm Just Ken takes this... the outrage will be enormous. But I think the Eilish-es are going two for two.

Best Sound
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: The Zone of Interest
Should win: Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer used its sound design to its utmost strength in unique ways. There really should be no contest here.

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Godzilla Minus One
Could win: The Creator
Should win: Idk.

Haven't seen either of the two frontrunners here, so can't say, but just from reading people's impressions and discussions online I'm going with Godzilla, it seems to be more well liked overall.

Best Documentary
Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could win: Not sure?
Should win: Not sure.
Have been very lax in the Documentary-watching this year. Not seen any of the nominees so can't say much here, going with the popular choice.

Best International Film
Will win: The Zone of Interest
Could win: Nope, it's a lock.
Should win: Perfect Days

Have watched all the films in this category and they're all really strong, but The Zone of Interest is a Best Picture nominee so gg I guess.
(Perfect Days is one of my favorite films of the year, but Monster would've been an even better nominee for Japan in this category. Also, Finland's Fallen Leaves is sorely missed. But like I said, all of these are great.)

I do think the technical categories, more specifically Production Design, Costumes, Make-up and Visual FX are gonna be the deciding factors this year in this prediction game. So that's where I've gone against the odds a bit - no risk, no result – right?

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 10, 2024, Original Post Date: Mar 10, 2024 ---

I hope so.

Likely a hot take, but Lily Gladstone did absolutely nothing for me in the film. Yes she has a presence, but she's barely in the film, and I guess that's sort of the point? While Emma Stone is quite literally there throughout the entire film, and not only that, it's one of those roles where, personally, I could see the character's actual growth from beginning to end.

If Emma doesn't win, it's not only going to be a repeat of last year, but a worst one at that; I'm happy that Michelle Yeoh won, but what she did is incomparable to Cate Blanchett's role as Lydia Tár, and to see Emma Stone lose after putting on such a unique and invested performance is really going to suck, just as much as seeing Poor Things lose a ton of awards. If only it had come out another year I'm sure it would've swept.

So yeah, that's just how I feel. I know that screen time itself doesn't determine whether a performance is Oscar-worthy or not, but I just feel like if Gladstone wins it's only gonna be because of the implications and whatnot, and not so much because of her acting, also sort of what happened last year as well.

I get where the praise is coming from but I really didn't see it that way, at all.



If there's anything I hope to see happen tonight, is to see Emma Stone take home the prize, I really don't care about anything else seeing as more than half of the categories should pretty much be a lock.

Kind of agree, though I liked Gladstone quite a bit more than you seem to have. But yeah, between the two Emma gave the better performance, though I'm not nearly as passionate about her performance as I was about Blanchett's last year. (That would be Sandra Huller for me, this year. )

This category is still up in the air though, and Emma Stone is one if the most well-liked people in Hollywood, so ppl may well wanna see her get her second Oscar for this film she was very much a driving force behind.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 10, 2024 ---

Already got one wrong, predicted The Boy and the Heron up until the very end then switched to Spidey... But very happy it won!

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 11, 2024 ---

Now two last-minute changes I made resulted in two misses... KNEW I should've stuck with Poor Things in Make-up/Hairstyling. Gah!

 

[Faust]

Anyone got a stream link online where I can watch the ceremony?

 

[Blink22]

BASED GODZILLA

 

[Organizized]

The Zone of Interest over Oppenheimer in Sound isn't out of nowhere but still the biggest upset of the night. Thought that was a near lock for Oppy.

I get it, though.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 11, 2024, Original Post Date: Mar 11, 2024 ---

If there's anything I hope to see happen tonight, is to see Emma Stone take home the prize, I really don't care about anything else seeing as more than half of the categories should pretty much be a lock.

Ceeeeeelebrate good times, COME ON!!!!

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 11, 2024 ---

My predictions are in shambles. Still the ones I got wrong, I've been happy to get wrong.

 

[Eigengrau]

The Zone of Interest over Oppenheimer in Sound isn't out of nowhere but still the biggest upset of the night. Thought that was a near lock for Oppy.

I get it, though.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 11, 2024, Original Post Date: Mar 11, 2024 ---

Ceeeeeelebrate good times, COME ON!!!!

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 11, 2024 ---

My predictions are in shambles. Still the ones I got wrong, I've been happy to get wrong.

yassssss, I'm not even mad I could've gotten so many other correct guesses if I'd gone with my first hunches, I'm so glad Emma Stone won, restored some of my faith in the Academy.

Also very ballsy and somewhat unexpected for sound to have gone to Zone of Interest, I'm happy to think they actually saw the actual films for once. Deserved.