Discussion War Between China and Japan?

[Drmke]

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-war-between-china-and-japan-looming
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCsezk9cOeo&feature=g-all-u


So while I don't know much about this situation, it appears to be a dispute over the Senkakus islands between Japan and China with China claiming they have the right to the islands and sending some ships over to them while Japan claims they have the right to them.

What do you guys think? Will this result in war? How will that affect the countries allied with these two nations? And if you know more about this situation than those links I provided say, could you elaborate a bit for us (especially since those links are terrible sources of information...)?

 

[marshall313]

Some view points.

●Korea-based Joongang Daily reported on July 9 that analysts think that China's naval drill in East China Sea this time is a warning to Japan.

●Japan-based Kyodo News reported on July 8 that the drill may aim at US and the Philippines, as the joint military drill of the two countries in South China Sea has not finished yet.

●Singapore-based zaobao.com reported on July 9 that this kind of drill is actually quite normal for Chinese navy in the East China Sea. The drill areas are far away to the Diaoyu Islands.

Related Comments:

●Diaoyu issue needs more than diplomacy
China needs to take action and make Japan think twice. To achieve this aim, diplomatic protests are not enough. We should not be afraid of Japan's possible fierce reactions. After a few rounds, Japan will have to rethink its sense of propriety.

●China holding back strength over Diaoyu Islands, for now
From Chinese perspective, no matter whether the Tokyo metropolitan government or Japanese government purchases the Diaoyu Islands or nationalizes them by other means, it's still a step to consolidate the legality of Japan's control and jurisdiction over the Diaoyu Islands. China won't indulge such behavior, and will inevitably take strong countermeasures.


Honestly, the next world war is already coming, well, it depends on china if they have some guts to fire/attack first the japan.

China + north korea + russia + iran

Vs

US + Japan + South Korea + UK + Australia

 

[Zehahaha]

Nah no war or anything, just Chinese showing off a bit, they're not that much of fools, and it's a good thing for them to revert the attention of the Chinese's population from some scandals of the communist party

 

[Josef]

Well, even though it is shaping up like a Cold War scenario that can escalate, it might just be a proxy war, though on a different level than the Vietnam or Korea war, back in the days of the Cold War. China was not that much involved in the Cold War, though current China is certainly stronger than Soviet Russia back then. Today the chances of things escalating are greater due to the advanced technology. Though before a full global war there might just be regional conflicts like these so that the war spreads through all regions.

For example the have to be "fires" lit all around the world. Middle East(Iran mostly) and Israel, China and Japan, Economic Crisis in Europe with Russia in the background. And quite frankly the US is the only place where there has to be something else that can happen, though they certainly will help their allies, but I can see the damage done to them as well.

 

[kkck]

To be honest I would think that having more technology would be more of a deterrent to start a war. More technology has the implication that both sides have the capacity to kill better and thus the stakes are higher for both sides. I don't think there will be an actual war over this though. I guess a lot would rely on what the economic benefit of owning the islands is. How much is the fishing worth? It would have to be worth A LOT for them to even consider it. Some say that there is a principle issue here however the fact is that principle has rather low return rates (in strictly monetary terms it is precisely 0%) and it is extremely expensive to get (look at the world and just how much of it is screwed up over "principle" which returns no tangible or measurable returns) and maintain. Even if they do go to war it wouldn't be very long until the expense of the war is greater than the worth of the islands and fishing there. The most likely scenario IMHO is that this will continue to be in the news and then forgotten with these guys continuing to exchange mean looks (and water hose fights apparently).

 

[marshall313]

Even if they do go to war it wouldn't be very long until the expense of the war is greater than the worth of the islands and fishing there. The most likely scenario IMHO is that this will continue to be in the news and then forgotten with these guys continuing to exchange mean looks (and water hose fights apparently).

Maybe it's not about the expense of the war or the worth of the islands and the fish/corals/minerals. it's all about the PRIDE of the nation.

 

[Kaiten]

This is all posturing. After centuries of self imposed isolation China has been trying to establish itself as a regional military power. Frankly, I doubt they care about the islands at all. The purpose is to push Japan around in order to show the rest of the region who is in charge. It doesn't matter if the islands ever change hands, rattling Japan is all that matters. The Chinese government is smart enough, and secure enough, that they would never go to war over barren, uninhabited islands. Even North Korea, one of the worlds most erratic regimes, is not psychotic enough for that. Similar stand offs occur semi-regularly between the two Korea's, and technically they are still at war.

Do not forget that Japan does not have an army to go to war with. The SDF is not prepared to face the People's Liberation Army.

 

[Imperium]

It is also a convenient smokescreen for the communist party. I wouldnt be surprised if they are encouraging the anti-japanese protests. It draws away the attention from the current Xilai scandal it is mired in (as well as that mysterious Jinping disapperance) and at a time when the party is transitioning into new leadership. The more they speak about the frankly worthless (so far) islands the less people focus on the real issues.

 

[Kaiten]

Protests can only happen in China if the party approves. There is little doubt the government is organizing the protests. I am not sure how much of a "wag the dog" issue this is. Censorship is pretty widespread, even much of the internet is blocked in China. I do not know how exposed most of China is to the Xilai scandal, or the change in leadership. That information is certainly completely suppressed in rural China. I'm not certain how much information is available in urban China, where they have a little more freedom than the countryside. Hong Kong is the only part of the country likely to be fully informed. My feeling is that the stand off with China is primarily big stick politics, intended as a display of power abroad, and to fan the flames of nationalism at home.

 

[weixiaobao]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JS4VZbCWj8

It will be more like

China + Pakistan + North Korea + Cambodia + Iran + part of Africa

vs

Japan + Taiwan + South Korea + India + Southeast Asia (minus Cambodia)
America

China border issues is nothing new. They already invaded Vietnam right after the American left. Just couple years ago, it came so close to war again that America send fleet down to South China Sea. USA is very strategic and ally itself with all the countries surrounded China. While China ally itself with countries that isn't particular fond of America.

 

[Josef]

Pakistan is supposed to be an ally of the US no? No doubt if the US is involved somehow that will trigger NATO as well. Even though the organization is kind of weird to me after the Cold War ended, since the other Pact does not exist anymore.

Though is we are talking about a war only on one continent, in this case Asia without Western influence China might also seek support from Russia, to fully crush opposition, the thing is that Japan and South Korea will never be left to hang dry by the west. Another up and coming powerhouse like India might make it somewhere in there, but only in the future, when it develops more.

 

[weixiaobao]

Pakistan is no ally of the US. The US send aids to Pakistan and bomb them as the same time. It like a bipolar sort of relationship. If India enter the war, Pakistan will be on China's side. Pakistan takes more aid from China than the USA anyway.

---------- Post added at 01:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:41 PM ----------

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3VaWb7qTUs/

The only reason why South Korea should enter the potential war is if North Korea made a move.

As for the west, Australia/UK etc, I really hope they butt out of Asia. They probably will fight on the Middle East Front.
We all know how much the USA wants war with Iran. I meant, after 9/11, Bush was bored on hunting Osama. He already blamed Iraq and started the Iraq war.
If the GOP has their way, war with Iran is inevitable. Iran being stuck between Afghanistan and Iraq (both countries are somewhat influenced by the USA), tension is at all time high. Bangladesh will have to chose a side once India and Pakistan clash. The US meant while has its ties with both Japan and Taiwan and recently Vietnam, so I don't doubt USA's meddling.

China and the USA both have different way of doing things. China point a knife at you and entered your home while saying we are a peaceful country.
The USA on the other hand give you foreign aid at the front door, and bomb you on your backyard at the same time.

***

 

[Kaiten]

Does anyone out there really think that the world's second and third largest economies are about to declare war on each other? That would be a terribly naive thing to think. This thread is beginning to look more like the role playing forum than a geopolitical discussion. The first thing you are ever taught when you learn foreign politics is that countries that trade with each other do not go to war. China does not like Japan. They have not forgotten the Sino-Japanese War and World War II. But Japan is too lucrative a market for Chinese goods, and China is too lucrative a market for Japanese goods. They are not going to war unless the stakes are very high. A deal will be brokered, one that probably does not address the islands. Rather it will likely establish more favorable trade conditions, and maybe adjust maritime borders. The thought that this conflict spreads into a pan-Asian war is simply ludicrous.

 

[weixiaobao]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

China doesn't want war, they want to flex their muscle, however, that's would create tension with other neighboring countries.
China doesn't need to initiate the war. If Pakistan and India go to war, China would have to take side.

To answer your question, yes, people are rile up about it. They are protesting in many different country. Are their anger justifiable or correct? That I don't know. But to make a statement saying there is nobody thinks that way is just showing how ignorant one is and how one is living in his own bubble.

---------- Post added at 04:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:23 PM ----------

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2Vjn7RkrJU

an interesting discussion about what sort of political game will the US play in this. I haven't finish watch it. But I thought, I did share if anyone interest.

 

[Drmke]

Judging by what I've read here, it seems (as I should have expected) that most of the news outlets are blowing this out of proportion a bit. But Kaiten is right, the first thing I've been taught in nearly every Political Science class I've ever attended is that democracies or major trading partners (China may not be democratic but they are probably much closer than actual communism) almost never go to war.

While obviously this intrigued me enough to start this thread, I'll be more than shocked if this situation was to escalate to war. Personally, if another global conflict is to start, I'd see it starting in the Middle East with Israel and Iran rather than Asia, but who knows.

 

[weixiaobao]

Drmke- Let's say war started between Vietnam and China. It was brief like the third Indochina War. And maybe lasted 3 days, with like some ten thousands people killed. War scenario is usually not likely, but consider the amount of tension between these two countries for the past decades. How would that change the dynamic of China and Taiwan, China and Japan?

If China and Japan is such a stand alone incident, then Kaiten is right. But China simultaneously building up tensions with all the countries surrounded it, and I think the South East China Sea border conflict is way more than the Senkaku. Would that not build up even more tension between China and Japan, and the likelihood of a conflict increase at least a few percentages?

http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=138052&code=Ne8&category=1
http://nation.time.com/2012/09/30/big-u-s-fleet-nears-disputed-islands-but-what-for/

The biggest deterrence to arm conflict for a while has been the presence of Americans in Asia.

In my defense, I never thought about Japan going to war with China. Since the scenario is most likely an armed conflict in South East Asia would happen way way before that. However, I never took into the consideration of how much this Senkaku island had come into play recently. The USA had no interest over South East Asia, and most likely would never commit itself over there. It would be very unpopular if it did. But certainly that would change the dynamic of things.

 

[Imperium]

Protests can only happen in China if the party approves. There is little doubt the government is organizing the protests. I am not sure how much of a "wag the dog" issue this is. Censorship is pretty widespread, even much of the internet is blocked in China. I do not know how exposed most of China is to the Xilai scandal, or the change in leadership. That information is certainly completely suppressed in rural China. I'm not certain how much information is available in urban China, where they have a little more freedom than the countryside. Hong Kong is the only part of the country likely to be fully informed. My feeling is that the stand off with China is primarily big stick politics, intended as a display of power abroad, and to fan the flames of nationalism at home.

The scandal was covered by the internal media. It naturally followed the party line but with the advent of social media and their netizens I would assume it has disseminated to the wider public more readily than it would have done so in the past.

The Tokyo mayor is on manoeuvres again it seems.

 

[Drmke]

Instead of starting a new thread, I'll post this here:

Majority of Chinese Expect a War with Japan

The article talks about rising nationalist tensions in both countries as well as in many other Asia-Pacific countries. Thoughts?

 

[kkck]

To me it just does not seem reasonable... I mean, why? Even if there is a confrontation I doubt it would go beyond a short skirmish. Even in the absolute worst case scenario I don't think a conflict can last more than a month and even then it probably won't be that bad.... There is nothing for either side to win here and war is expensive. Unless I am missing something which could easily be the case.

 

[Drmke]

If it was to happen, it would most likely be caused by the desire for economic dominance and blind nationalism. Wars are rarely started for reasons that seem sane from the outside.

China fears the hegemonic power of the US and by extension Japan. Obama has been announcing for years he intends to do an "Asian pivot" economically. China, as the second largest economy in the world, is worried that this "pivot" means taking over its territory, which it most certainly does. A war would be disastrous for all parties involved specifically the US, Japan, and China and whatever poor countries get used as a battleground.

It does, however, seem unlikely (granted everything usually does until it happens). But with the continual pushes in both Chinese and especially Japanese culture towards right-wing nationalism, it's far from a non-issue. The large number of Chinese and Japanese citizens that seem to expect a conflict of some sort is the worrying thing. It's easiest for a government to start a war if the people expect it.