I actually crunched the data on this (and other stats to do with serialisation rounds) back in
November 2021, which would need updated again but I doubt any of the changes would be that extreme. For this in particular:
- In terms of the success rate depending on the order within a serialisation round:
- In rounds of 2 series, the 2nd published series is more likely to survive (57%)
- In rounds of 3 series, the 1st and 2nd published series are more likely to survive (44% vs 41%), while the 3rd series only survived 16% of the time.
- In rounds of 4 series, all placements have similar chances to survive, with 2nd and 3rd at 28% vs 1st and 4th at 24%
- In rounds of 5 series, 4th and 5th place are the most likely to survive (36% vs 29%); the 2nd series survives 21% of the time; the 1st series 14%; meanwhile, no series published 3rd has ever been a success.
- In rounds of 6 series, the only three successes came in 1st, 3rd, and 5th, each sharing 33%.
- In the single round of 7 serialisations, the 5th and 7th series were successes, sharing 50% each.
So being last in a serialisation round isn't indicative of it being a cursed spot in all circumstances, but it seems to be if its a a round of three then the likelihood of survival is notably lower than most other scenarios. Yet if it's a round of two it's most likely to survive and in a round of five last place has the second best chance of survival. A curious note to me was that in a round of five serialisation the one in the middle (3rd) has never been a success.
So Cycle Biyori doesn't have statistics on its side, but that doesn't matter because it's going to defy expectations and be the best thing in the magazine. I'll welcome everyone aboard the appreciation train when you're ready to board, even if late.
Interesting statistics. I mean when I heard about the batch of 5 and 6 in 1998 and 2017, they went beyond what was before 1982. But knowing that the odds for some are rare depending on where it’s placed varies. But it doesn’t mean nothing. Not as long as people enjoy it. But going over what we had with this batch here was my prediction on what I thought was a success or a failure based on what I have known from these mangaka.
-Astro Royale: Has the potential to be a hit because of Wakui. Thanks in part due to his pedigree with working with Kodansha and having a success with Tokyo Revengers, it shows the potential. However, by the time the final arc of Tokyo Revengers came, I know people hated it. But just coming off of a series not to long after it was finished also doesn’t give me confidence cause I worry about if there wasn’t any proper foundation and planning from that gap.
-Kyokuto Necromance: I think it might be a flop. Mainly from the fact that Naba just came back almost over a year ago. That and I really don’t trust his editor Murakoshi (if it is still him), when it comes to battle manga. Nothing against Murakoshi, I am a fan of his for launching Act-Acg (rip), Witch Watch, Blue Box, and Akane-banashi. But look at what he has done, romance, dramas, and slight comedies (he was also Numa’s editor when they did Samon the Summoner, before the transfer when Numa did Chojo). And Murakoshi also launched Burn the Witch, but that was so brief, mostly due to catering to Kubo. I just have no faith in this, unless otherwise but chapter 2 really showcases this.
-Cycle Byori: Now nothing against them since we only have the character designs, but I am leaning towards it to be a failure, mainly due to being a rookie. It would be rare for a newcomer who can have that level of understanding in their writing and then properly execute. But until I see what they can do, I have relatively low expectations. Might as well impress me in the same vein like how I had low expectations with P6 and then got completely won over.
And those were what my initial thoughts were. I do have expectations from the beginning, but until I read those chapters, they will vary and maybe change than just being blind to it.
