The idea that color pages don't matter is unfounded. Series that receive a color page are safe for roughly 8 issues at least. Given that the rounds are usually only 10-12 chapters apart that means most series that receive one are safe for that round. That hasn't changed even for the most recent batches. MMA was canceled 8 weeks after getting its last color page though actually 10 issues because of the double issues. MMYY was canceled 8 issues after it's CP exact. TOI's last color page was 13 issues ago and it is almost certainly getting axed next week. GGG last received a CP 4 issues ago. It's going to survive this round. Meanwhile SE hasn't received a color page at all since it's 2nd chapter and it's likely going to be axed after TOI. Chojo received two CP's and ranked 5th. Dear Anemone hasn't received any since it's debut and is ranked bottom 3.
This is true for older batches as well. Cipher Academy was axed 9 weeks (11 issues due to the double weeks) after its last CP. Ichinose 20 issues, Gill 18 issues, Fabricant 100 13 issues. Tenmaku 19 issues, Do Retry 17, Ichigoki 17. Ginka 16 issues, Tokyo Demon Bride 20 issues. P6 8 weeks, 10 issues. Literally all of the axes for last year, never below the 8 issue mark. Most more than 10 chapters after. This was true for 2022 too.
Sure, Jump gives color pages for promotion but it's abundantly clear when it does because the whole batch usually receives one vs when they do for actual popularity. And yes, some series don't get color pages because the author is overworked and can't do them however one thing is clear: Jump doesn't give color pages to series it's planning to axe soon.