Movies Oscar's Contest 2022

[Riku]

Trying to forget the on-stage drama and focus the drama on the screen, let's just say that now a lot of people will learn after googling what CODA stands for, and that is a good thing. A safe film might have won the biggest award, but one with good intentions and warm heart. I'm very tired, and I really hope I counted these right. I'll link the sheet at the end of the post, so anyone can re-check.

Now let's see who won our Oscar!

At 3rd place with 17 points - was me, Riku.

At shared 2nd place with 18 points are @Organizized @goldb and @PhillyG ​

Congratulations, well done, but just not quite well enough. The second place could have gone to user @phipps13 with 19 points, but since that nick doesn't exist, too bad. (Contact me, Riku, if you have have misspelt your nick or something and I just didn't find it)

But now a reveal, that for me is the real best part of this years Oscars. After so many close calls this mysterious DiCaprio of Mangahelpers finally takes the prize that is much deserved and has been a long time coming. Dear people,

The 1st place with 20 points goes to the one and only, the legend @George Monkey


Congratulations!

​

The point score is shared with user @Dnanni1, but since that is once again a non-nick, it is ignore (contact me, Riku, if there has been a mistake of some sorts)

All scores​

 

[SharkBait]

I actually watched more of these than I thought

CODA was entertaining
Luca being up there makes me smile (favorite)
Dont Look Up was fun
Dune was incredible
Being the Ricardos had its moments.

saw some of the others due to working at a theater part time. (and some of these due to being on the pre-release focus groups)

 

[Organizized]

Subbing here. Still to watch all the films I want to from the nominees but will put my predictions and personal picks here later!

 

[Riku]

Saw The Power of the Dog just now, and oh boy that was a good one. Such an intense slow burner with very deep characters, stellar performances and haunting af soundtrack. 4½/5.

And for my daily educated guess:

Best Original Song:
Will win: No Time To Die (No Time to Die)
Should win: Gales of Song (Belle), U (Belle), Surface Pressure (Encanto)
Could Win: No Time to Die, Dos Oruguitas (Encanto)

I think Billie Eilish with No Time to Die is the frontrunner for this one. It's a great song and performance, Bond songs are always iconic and Eilish is adored in Hollywood right now. On the other hand a certain someone else is also adored by the industry. Lin-Manuel Miranda definitely deserves the award and Dos Oruguitas is a very touching love song. Not my favorite from the film though, as I personally preferred Surface Pressure (the lyrics hit personally very hard) and We Don't Talk About Bruno (catchy as hell). But it is the most Oscars friendly song sure.

Rounded up with Beyoncé, Van Morrison and Diane Warren (a veteran in the category) this year the selection is definitely stacked with big and strong names. And I like all of them to some extent. I still think it will favor No Time to Die, but Dos Oruguitas is right behind.

Snubbed: Belle.

 

[Wowzers]

Belle was snubbed! I especially love U. I don’t usually buy soundtracks but I did for that one.

 

[Erinyes]

Saw The Power of the Dog just now, and oh boy that was a good one. Such an intense slow burner with very deep characters, stellar performances and haunting af soundtrack. 4½/5.

It was excellent, and dat Dominic performance was stunning ( not only him, but oh well ) Im betting on Dominic Cunberbatch for best leading actor, and Kirsten Dust for supporting actress. But I havent watched many movies so it's hard to tell

I wholeheartedly wish Summer of Soul will get the documentary category award.

 

[Riku]

Todays educated guess inspired by Turning Red - a brilliant film that's better than any of the ones below:

Best Animated Feature Film:
Will win: Encanto
Should win: Junk Head, Mitchell's vs the Machines
Could Win: Mitchell's vs the Machines

I think Encanto will take it. And it would be very deserved. The songs are great (ah Lin-Manuel ), and it's super well animated. I were especially impressed with the all the dancing.

My personal favorite of the bunch is Mitchell's vs the Machines though. Its a lot more inventive and fun in its animation, following from lessons learned from Spiderverse. Also personally hits me a lot harder. I cant relate really with an overbearing matriarchal family dynamic. But a creative teenager going to art school trying to find peace with his old-school dad who quite doesn't get it... that was me. And I do think this also resonates with a lot of the Academy as well. And they did already once pick the creative Spiderverse look over the same old Disney look. So it has a solid chance as well.

Flee is tiny bit of an upset possibility. I haven't seen it, but it's history making triple nomination could signal something.

Luca was a very charming cute film, but I dont see it overcoming Encanto.

We don't talk about Raya, nah nah nah nah

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 11, 2022 ---

No prediction for tonight.

But I did watch West Side Story. And with that I've watched the major nominees that are easily accesible to me I think. (Stuff in streaming services I've subs)

West Side Story was definetly classic cinema and there in lies also it's problems - it was boring, the romance very unrealistic (and toxic), and that made the characters dumb af. The modernization of it wasn't as drastic I'd expected, but I guess that would have changed the core story to much. The romance fairy tale just doesn't imho work in this era. People expect more grounded portrayals of love, which do not promote a very unhealthy view on relationships. Atleast I do. Not sure this version was that much progressive in its portrayal of Puerto Ricans either. I think the story about economic inequality festering racism has also been told better in other films.

For positives, it was very well shot and production designed all the way. Some individual pictures were stunning. DeBose was also a total scene stealer and I can see why the award season had treated her well. Even if it wasn't modern enough to me, it was still better than the 1961 version.

And did I just miss it or did they actually change the " I feel so witty, and pretty and gaaay" line? If so, it's a blasphemy.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2022 ---

I'd still like to see Drive My Car, CODA and Belfast before the awards to likely won't have the chance.

Also Flee and Worst Person in the World at some point.

 

[Eigengrau]

I'd still like to see Drive My Car, CODA and Belfast before the awards to likely won't have the chance.

Also Flee and Worst Person in the World at some point.

I would prioritize

- Drive My Car
- The Worse Person In The World
- Flee

In that order, but to each his/her own

I understand not being able to make time for all of those especially when Drive My Car is 3h.

 

[Organizized]

I would prioritize

- Drive My Car
- The Worse Person In The World
- Flee

In that order, but to each his/her own

I understand not being able to make time for all of those especially when Drive My Car is 3h.

All next in line for me along with Licorice Pizza.

 

[Wowzers]

Every time I hear “Liquorice Pizza” I want to gag.

I’ll still see the movie if I can

 

[Erinyes]

Drive my car is very long, i watched in two steps; i have hard times with too long movies.

If possible I would, but probbably won't have time to, watch : Coda, Flee, Dune and the Tragedy of Macbeth, I'd love to see Denzel performance in classical litterature, though I loved Orson Welles' version (i did watch when i was at uni since I studied some Shakespeare plays)
if anyone is interested here is a link :

We don't talk about Raya, nah nah nah nah

Why I liked it, especially 1st part, ok, I admit it might gives the feeling of overused tropes sometimes, but it was well executed, and i had nice time watching it, I loved both Encanto and Raya. but watched only those 2 in animation category so .

 

[Organizized]

West Side Story was definetly classic cinema and there in lies also it's problems - it was boring, the romance very unrealistic (and toxic), and that made the characters dumb af. The modernization of it wasn't as drastic I'd expected, but I guess that would have changed the core story to much. The romance fairy tale just doesn't imho work in this era. People expect more grounded portrayals of love, which do not promote a very unhealthy view on relationships. Atleast I do. Not sure this version was that much progressive in its portrayal of Puerto Ricans either. I think the story about economic inequality festering racism has also been told better in other films.

For positives, it was very well shot and production designed all the way. Some individual pictures were stunning. DeBose was also a total scene stealer and I can see why the award season had treated her well. Even if it wasn't modern enough to me, it was still better than the 1961 version.

As someone who likes musicals, I always catch flak because I don't like West Side Story. Never did. Seen it on stage and on film and it never clicks with me, for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. I might watch it if I manage to watch all the other ones I wanna see before the ceremony, just for the visuals of it, and because my mom keeps nagging me (saying it's the best film from last year).

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 14, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 14, 2022 ---

Best Animated Feature Film:
Will win: Encanto
Should win: Junk Head, Mitchell's vs the Machines
Could Win: Mitchell's vs the Machines

I think Encanto will take it. And it would be very deserved. The songs are great (ah Lin-Manuel ), and it's super well animated. I were especially impressed with the all the dancing.

My personal favorite of the bunch is Mitchell's vs the Machines though. Its a lot more inventive and fun in its animation, following from lessons learned from Spiderverse. Also personally hits me a lot harder. I cant relate really with an overbearing matriarchal family dynamic. But a creative teenager going to art school trying to find peace with his old-school dad who quite doesn't get it... that was me. And I do think this also resonates with a lot of the Academy as well. And they did already once pick the creative Spiderverse look over the same old Disney look. So it has a solid chance as well.

Flee is tiny bit of an upset possibility. I haven't seen it, but it's history making triple nomination could signal something.

Luca was a very charming cute film, but I dont see it overcoming Encanto.

We don't talk about Raya, nah nah nah nah

Mitchells won Best Animated Feature at Critics' Choice this weekend, as well as at the Annie Awards (took home twice as many awards overall), certainly has more love from the Animation industry... it really has a solid shot at beating Encanto. Though, I thought the same of Klaus for the same reason and it lost. Hard to say. The rule is usually that the biggest Disney/Pixar film is the one to beat, and Encanto is the most popular Disney film since Frozen - plus it has three nominations overall which means more than you'd think - but I'd be happy to see Mitchells pull through!

Also, if Encanto wins I think it's the first time Disney Animation beats Pixar when they both have nominees.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 14, 2022 ---

I think Campion absolutely deserves to win Director, but saying in her speech at Critics Choice “Venus and Serena you’re marvels but you don’t have to compete against the men like I do” is not a good look. Unnecessary and not a great comparison whatsoever. Wonder if it'll sway voters.

 

[Riku]

I would prioritize

- Drive My Car
- The Worse Person In The World
- Flee

In that order, but to each his/her own

I understand not being able to make time for all of those especially when Drive My Car is 3h.

Would be my preferred order, but these three all just came to Finnish cinema circulation, so no way to rent or home watch them at the moment (legally that is). With me being still recovering from the virus and working only part-time right now, I three times to the cinema right now is un-doable

Why I liked it, especially 1st part, ok, I admit it might gives the feeling of overused tropes sometimes, but it was well executed, and i had nice time watching it, I loved both Encanto and Raya. but watched only those 2 in animation category so .

Well, it is not ultimately a bad film, but just very tropy and forgettable. Made me really feel nothing, and the design of the dragons was imho silly (and I love traditional chinese dragons). Just compared to all the other nominees, Raya is awfully out ranked by everything else (Sure, I haven't seen Flee, but the praise in general is a lot higher than Rayas)

Mitchells won Best Animated Feature at Critics' Choice this weekend, as well as at the Annie Awards (took home twice as many awards overall), certainly has more love from the Animation industry... it really has a solid shot at beating Encanto. Though, I thought the same of Klaus for the same reason and it lost. Hard to say. The rule is usually that the biggest Disney/Pixar film is the one to beat, and Encanto is the most popular Disney film since Frozen - plus it has three nominations overall which means more than you'd think - but I'd be happy to see Mitchells pull through!

Yeah, that bodes well for Mitchels! Hoping for the best, I did enjoy it more than Encanto. That said, Encanto was really wonderful as well.

I think Campion absolutely deserves to win Director, but saying in her speech at Critics Choice “Venus and Serena you’re marvels but you don’t have to compete against the men like I do” is not a good look. Unnecessary and not a great comparison whatsoever. Wonder if it'll sway voters.

Yeah, that was weird, rude and unnecessary. I understand that the Sam Elliot shit might still be haunting her (he said that Power of Dog is not a western, because not shot in the actual west and because cowboys were not gay, or something), but still completly out of line. She did release a pretty good apology today though, so I'm not too worried it messed her chances.

I wonder if there is any info any where, when the actual votes are cast?

 

[Organizized]

I wonder if there is any info any where, when the actual votes are cast?

I think final voting started yesterday and ends the day before the ceremony.

I understand that the Sam Elliot shit might still be haunting her (he said that Power of Dog is not a western, because not shot in the actual west and because cowboys were not gay, or something)

Heard about that too, his whole reaction to it was very ironic considering the film's main theme is toxic masculinity and he really just proved its point.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 15, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 15, 2022 ---

Was very wrong about the voting, it starts on the 17th and ends on the 22nd, giving voters only six days to vote.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 17, 2022 ---

Saw The Power of the Dog just now, and oh boy that was a good one. Such an intense slow burner with very deep characters, stellar performances and haunting af soundtrack. 4½/5.

As a cinematographer/videographer yourself, which do you prefer out of the nominees in that category? Specifically TPOTD v Dune.

I watched The Tragedy of MacBeth the other day, and though I don't usually love watching Shakespeare I found myself drawn in by the performances and, most of all, the visuals. Very minimalist, like watching a stage play in real life, but felt like every scene was like a perfectly set up photograph.

 

[Riku]

As a cinematographer/videographer yourself, which do you prefer out of the nominees in that category? Specifically TPOTD v Dune.

Well, addition to those two, I have only seen West Side Story from the category. Based on what I have seen and know, it's still pretty much a race between TPOTD and Dune.

It's a though question. Both are extremely well shot films, and I can see it going either way and it will be okay. Personally I maybe slightly prefer TPOTD. It does an excellent job selling New Zealand as believable wild west, the lighting in every shot is sublime and the lanscape photography just stunning. It also does do an incredible job using visual storytelling to tell us what the characters are feeling and going thorough - supports the actors very well. Also, Ari Wegner would be the first woman to win the award, and that would definitely be something neat.

Fraser did fantastic work as well though, and following with The Batman he definitely is the guy at the moment when it comes to action cinematography.

 

[Organizized]

It's a though question. Both are extremely well shot films, and I can see it going either way and it will be okay. Personally I maybe slightly prefer TPOTD. It does an excellent job selling New Zealand as believable wild west, the lighting in every shot is sublime and the lanscape photography just stunning. It also does do an incredible job using visual storytelling to tell us what the characters are feeling and going thorough - supports the actors very well. Also, Ari Wegner would be the first woman to win the award, and that would definitely be something neat.

I feel the same, but thought maybe it's because I liked TPOTD more as a whole and guess I'm a little bit biased towards that type of visual over the bleaker tones of Dune (which is perfect for that film, don't get me wrong). Very on the fence regarding which will win, Dune seems to be the safe choice looking at the precursor awards, but we know Oscars like to send a message (first woman winner etc)... The point about how Dog does the visual storytelling so well is a great point, but I'm wondering if that's something most will attribute to Directing rather than Cinematography (when really it's both).

I want to predict CODA for a kind of upset in Adapted Screenplay since it seems to have a momentum going, but that would leave Dog with just Picture and Director and that almost never happened ever.. which leaves me thinking it could win Editing or Cinematography, both in which Dune is the frontrunner, so I wonder where the upset is more likely... (Probably neither, and it'll just win Adapted Screenplay, but y'know... I wanna be a bit more risky with my picks this year lol)

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 17, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 17, 2022 ---

Has the Mysterious Mr. Monkey entered yet?

 

[Riku]

Has the Mysterious Mr. Monkey entered yet?

Not yet @George Monkey

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 17, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 17, 2022 ---

I feel the same, but thought maybe it's because I liked TPOTD more as a whole and guess I'm a little bit biased towards that type of visual over the bleaker tones of Dune (which is perfect for that film, don't get me wrong). Very on the fence regarding which will win, Dune seems to be the safe choice looking at the precursor awards, but we know Oscars like to send a message (first woman winner etc)... The point about how Dog does the visual storytelling so well is a great point, but I'm wondering if that's something most will attribute to Directing rather than Cinematography (when really it's both).

I want to predict CODA for a kind of upset in Adapted Screenplay since it seems to have a momentum going, but that would leave Dog with just Picture and Director and that almost never happened ever.. which leaves me thinking it could win Editing or Cinematography, both in which Dune is the frontrunner, so I wonder where the upset is more likely... (Probably neither, and it'll just win Adapted Screenplay, but y'know... I wanna be a bit more risky with my picks this year lol)

I also think Dune is probably a bit safer bet. The Academy does like to favor very grand and big visual spectacles in this category, and Dune certainly is in that category. POTDs cinematic splendor is more low-key in style and tone than Dune.

There definitely needs to be atleast one "upset" victory. It's in the spirit of the gala. CODA taking the screenplay from POTD would qualify that imho.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 17, 2022 ---

In the adapted screenplay category, I would also give a little chance to Dune. Just how notoriously hard to adapt text it is. Not that it really deserves it imho. From my pov, it should be Power of the Dog all the way.

 

[Organizized]

Welp, I sent my predictions but I might very well change them the day before the ceremony or so, and go with some safer picks. Depends on how daring I feel, and how much I really want that fourth win.

 

[Riku]

Still 10 days to wonder and ponder and change.

I'll start mass tagging around 4-3 days prior.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 17, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 17, 2022 ---

As little teaser on how our poll is going:
- The most awards go to Dune
- It's a tight race - at the moment 6 categories are tied for the winner
- Don't Look up is getting awarded (which is a little surprising imho)

 

[Organizized]

Might really have to revise my predictions..

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 20, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 20, 2022 ---

Don't Look up is getting awarded (which is a little surprising imho)

Editing, I assume..? I'd be surprised it it even gets that tbh but you never know.

Idk if the ceremony will be televised here in Sweden this year.. might have to find some livestream online somewhere.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 21, 2022 ---

Don't Look Up did just win Best Original Screenplay at Writer's Guild Awards... over Licorice Pizza (Belfast wasn't eligible).

Belfast won the Globe, LP won the BAFTA and DLU won the WGA. So that category seems to really be wide open. I guess DLU could have a shot there.

 

[Riku]

Yes, that is what our users would at the moment be awarding it with as well.

It's interesting an interesting category. I'm leaning towards Belfast right now, just because it's personal for Branagh, and Hollywood usually loves that.